Some presidential contenders have expressed plans to renegotiate the IMF bailout terms, creating uncertainty around the program. The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining the IMF loan to strengthen recovery and suggests that a debt-restructuring deal with dollar bondholders may be finalized by the next IMF review, but it warns that fiscal consolidation could cap the economic rebound.

While borrowing rates have decreased, pushing up credit demand and tourism, the report notes that tight fiscal policy and weak consumer sentiment may limit growth. If policymakers fail to enact reforms beyond those mandated by the IMF, economic growth is projected to improve modestly to about 3.8 percent by 2040, far below the 5-6 percent seen pre-pandemic.

The report calls for addressing corruption and easing business conditions to achieve faster growth, highlighting demographic challenges like an aging population that may further limit growth potential after 2040.